“Hungary is among the best performing member states in the field of renewable energies” – claimed Mr. Zsolt Szabó, secretary of state for development and climate affairs, at an event in Budapest early March this year. Moreover, “we are doing so well, that from 2018 we can start working on the 2030 targets”.

We received the statement of the state secretary with great surprise, having read, among others, the official report of the Hungarian Energy Office about the renewable energy use between 2004 and 2014¹. According to this report, the share of renewables within the gross final energy consumption was only 9.64% in 2014, and this ratio barely increased in the previous years. At the same time, Hungary’s EU commitment for 2020 is 14.65%. It is difficult to understand the country’s claimed leadership position considering that no wind capacity has been created since 2006, only a single greenfield biomass power plant has been built since Hungary’s EU accession, the Hungarian biogas sector is in a crisis, and so far we have not excelled in solar energy, either.

The secretary of state referred to a new survey performed by KSH, the Central Statistical Office, according to which the firewood use in the residential sector is dramatically higher than it was thought earlier. We had to wait until March 30 to understand what is behind these statements. An article appeared on the economic news portal Portfolio.hu², which reported that the Energy Office not only recalculated the residential firewood statistics, but they retroactively re-estimated³ those statistics. After the recalculations, the new reported numbers proved to be 151% (!) higher than what the earlier data showed. The Regional Centre for Energy Policy Research (REKK) evaluated the new statistics⁴, and observed that the proportion of renewable energy in Hungary has reached 14.5%, which is more than the obligatory target of 13% by 2020, and is practically identical with the 14.65% figure, voluntarily undertaken by the Hungarian Government. REKK’s evaluation also points out that nearly 80% of the Hungarian renewable energy supply comes from the use of residential firewood.

Two questions should be asked:

1. How reliable are the reported statistics?

2. What are the predicted consequences?

Regarding the reliability of the data, it would be reassuring to know what methodology was applied in the statistical analysis. Residential firewood consumption is not measured, like gas or electricity; it is estimated. According to the official reports, the earlier statistical data were based on the production statistics of the forestries. The generated data did not include illegally logged – or, simply put: stolen – wood. A 2009 study of REKK⁵ reported that the annual volume of illegal wood use is estimated at 2-4 million m³. The new statistical methodology includes the illegal use as well, based on the Household expenditure and lifestyle survey of KSH. For instance, the recalculated statistics show 73.9 PJ residential firewood consumption for the year 2015, which corresponds to 7.4 million tons or 9.6 million m³ (with specific volume 1.3 m³/t). At the same time, the official firewood production⁶ was only 7.35 million m³ in the same year. This means that the illegal use had to cover the missing 2.25 million m³ firewood, all the other uses (several million m³ of furniture, palette, chipboard, cellulose, etc. production), plus the positive export-import balance. I believe that we have good reasons to doubt the reliability of the new data. How exactly is the statistical survey performed? Do survey respondents admit how much stolen wood they use?

There is another problem with the reported figures about renewable energy. The Clean Air Action Group, a national environmental NGO, receives numerous complaints about air pollution caused by household burning of plastics, tires and other waste⁷. We did not find any references in the government reports about whether they accounted for this issue by subtracting the amount of illegal waste burning from the total volume of household solid burning.

Our third concern is that approximately half of the households that use solid fuels also have access to natural gas. If we take into account the differing efficiencies of wood and gas boilers, the gas price (which is regulated by the government) is less expensive than firewood. Consequently, wood burning makes no economic sense, unless illegally procured wood is used.

It is unfortunate to conclude that within the renewable statistics of Hungary, the residential firewood use has a share of nearly 80%, of which 60% is stolen wood and illegally burned waste. Therefore, our “superb” performance is achieved by widespread violation of the law. We cannot be proud of that.

An even more serious issue is what consequences we can expect. With the corrected statistics Hungary can report to the European Commission that the 2020 targets are delivered. There will be no infringement, provided that the Commission accepts the data as supplied by the Hungarian Government. In this case there will be cost savings in the short run.

At the same time, the “outstanding” performance provides a reason for the Government to stop developments of renewable energy. We can sit back and relax – claims the article in Portfolio.hu. Even the introduction of the long planned METAR system (a subsidy scheme to provide support for renewable power generation) can be postponed indefinitely, and the budgeted HUF 45 billion does not have to be spent.

Energy is cheap today, which is a great relief for a country that relies close to 70% on imports. Most of the countries take advantage of this situation and restructure their energy sectors towards clean energies. In 2015, the majority of the world’s new power generation capacities was already from renewable energy, thanks to the USD 285 billion spent for this purpose⁸. No doubt, the world is moving towards renewables, as it was moving in the ’70s towards rising oil prices. At that time our government believed that the high oil prices would not infiltrate into Hungary. And today Hungary bases its energy strategy on the belief that renewables will not infiltrate into the country, and that we can get by relying heavily on energy import and manage the EU targets by fighting against “Brussels”. We should recognize, however, that the production of locally available renewable energy and the development of the necessary infrastructure and technological capabilities are primarily not the EU’s, but our own national interest.

Zoltán Lontay
Member of the Experts’ Committee, Clean Air Action Group, Hungary